As a year of grave concerns, 2016 is giving us plenty to think about. Terrorism, war, economic and political instability, refugees, climate change, unemployment, rising food costs — the selection is vast, the problems complex. How much they concern you also depends on how confident you are in the abilities of national leaders to address them (another matter of concern).
A country’s global position has traditionally been assessed by its economy, military, diplomacy and development assistance. The Canadian economy is approximately the 16th largest in the world. Our military is the 80th largest and Canada now ranks 51st in the world among peacekeeping nations. Diplomacy is handled by Global Affairs Canada, formerly Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, whose role in recent years has become more about co-ordinating central agencies with roles in different policy areas than about maintaining effective multilateral diplomacy. Among its stated priorities is reinforcing Canada’s relationship with the U.S. Canada’s development assistance since 2010 has been 0.34 percent of the country’s gross national income, well below the 0.7 percent target set in 1969 by a United Nations expert commission headed by former prime minister Lester B. Pearson. Clearly, Canada is not among the top tier of players on the world stage; therefore, many of our international activities will be directed by other nations’ interests, especially those of the U.S.
Much has been written about the biggest threats to global and national well-being; defining only 10 among so many is difficult. This list is based on information and opinions from multiple sources, including Pew Research, the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution, all nonpartisan think-tanks; Statistics Canada; security agencies (CSIS, the CIA); international newspapers, blogs and academics. The list is subjective, of course, and readers will have their own list, or a different descending order.
1. Islamic State
The jihadist Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL and DAESH), is at war with the world. Its insane goal is to realize the prediction of Prophet Mohammed that Dabiq, Syria, would be the final battleground where Islam and Rome would fight before the end of time and Islam would triumph. IS took advantage of the premature withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq to rise up in Iraq, then Syria. IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (also known as Al-Khalifah Ibrahim) has forces murdering and plundering to expand his caliphate. The violence is calculated to subjugate the world under Sharia law, instil terror and draw the West into that final battle.
While the goal is mad, IS is sophisticated and well-funded by oil and gas, taxation on economic activities, confiscation of property — including captured U.S. tanks, vehicles and armaments — trafficking in drugs and antiquities, criminal activity and state-run businesses. It uses social media to recruit the disenfranchised, the angry and the naïve.
Conventional wisdom says defeating IS requires taking its territory. In September 2014, IS controlled roughly 210,000 square kilometres of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin, which was reduced by 30 percent a year later by the U.S.-led coalition. IS has been pushed out of several cities and in Syria faces President Bashar al-Assad’s army as well as rebel groups and airstrikes by the coalition and Russia. But IS losses in Iraq and Syria could be made up in other areas where marginalized youth with little money or opportunity are prey to recruitment.
The group is successful at recruiting from outside. CSIS says today’s generation of foreign fighters represents “a clear and present danger” to the West. Recall that foreign fighters have figured in al-Qaeda and in Afghanistan since the 1980s. Security agencies are working, sometimes successfully, to prevent radicalization and identify recruiting efforts, but it’s slow work. Current estimates put the number of armed foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq at close to 30,000, Canadians among them.
Canada’s role in the fight against IS has included six CF-18s based in Kuwait. In February, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau controversially ordered the withdrawal of the fighter aircraft a month early in favour of tripling the training and assistance mission in northern Iraq, as NATO requested in December. It is a role Canada fulfilled until the U.S. withdrew in 2011. It is riskier work and will put more Canadian troops in harm’s way.
This could be a significant year for IS; 2016 is the 100th anniversary of the Asia Minor Agreement (Sykes-Picot Agreement), which shaped the modern Middle East and which IS invokes in its propaganda. The architects of the agreement — Britain and France, with Russian assent — could become greater targets and we could see movement away from the caliphate structure to post-colonial revenge, says Ray Boisvert, former assistant director of CSIS.
The pressures bearing down on IS are significant, and must continue to be applied. Russia will be the game-changer. While insurgency typically runs down as its players lose their enthusiasm, IS faces an existential threat against which it can be expected to fight to the bitter end.
2. Middle East conflict
When has this part of the world not been in conflict? Marco Polo wrote in 1271 that he intended to travel through Syria and Iraq, but changed his route due to their ongoing war. Middle Eastern geopolitical interests and partnerships have impelled wars over land, religion, oil and other resources, colonialism and access to Asia, spawned by greed, corruption, revenge and sheer hatred. Current disputes include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Syrian war, Sunni-Shiite divide and Saudi Arabia’s conflicts with Iran and Yemen.
Israeli/Palestinian conflict
This dispute has biblical origins, but comes down to a fight over territory that was known until 1948 as Palestine, the name used by three monotheistic religions to describe, without defining boundaries, a “Holy Land.” After the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, the Holy Land was divided into the State of Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Successive wars shifted borders, and peace treaties and ceasefires failed — violent action yielding violent counter-action.
The Palestinian uprisings in 1987 and 2000 involved escalating attacks. In August 2014, violating a cease-fire, Hamas fired nearly 3,000 rockets at Israel, which retaliated with airstrikes. A ceasefire ended the skirmish, but violence erupted in September 2015, despite ongoing peace talks. The Palestinian leadership announced it would no longer adhere to the 1993 Oslo Accords struck between the government of Israel and the PLO. Today’s concern is the potential for a third intifada.
War in Syria
In 2011, protests against President Bashar al-Assad escalated into war between the Syrian government (backed by Russia, Iran, Lebanese Shiite Muslims and Hezbollah) and anti-government rebels. The war spilled into neighbouring states, drawing outside intervention, particularly due to IS expansion from Iraq into Syria. IS has captured Syrian territory, committed atrocities against Shiites, Christians and Sunnis, and beheaded captives. Outside involvement has increased: Russia deployed 2,000 troops, fighter jets, helicopters and surface-to-air missiles; France expanded its airstrikes after attacks in Paris; Britain launched an air campaign; and the U.S. deployed 50 Special Ops forces to join Kurdish forces. Diplomacy and the Geneva II peace process have not resolved the conflict. Concerns now include military escalation, expansion of extremist groups in Syria, and most significant, further displacement of Syrian nationals.
Sunni/Shia divide
An ancient religious division between Sunni and Shiite Muslims foments the resurrection of conflicts in the Middle East and Muslim countries. Clashes between Sunni and Shiite forces have contributed to the Syrian civil war, encouraged violence in Iraq, worsened tension in Gulf countries and revived jihadi networks outside the region. Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shiite) are using the division to further their own ambitions. Although they are facets of Islam and agree on a monotheistic God with Mohammed as his messenger, Sunni and Shiite differ in their rituals and interpretation of Islam. Neither side can view the other with grace or objectivity. Of greatest concern are rising militancy, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, fractured states within the region and humanitarian crises.
Saudi Arabia vs Iran and Yemen
Saudi Arabia is dealing with the consequences of several problems: oil prices too low to maintain its economy, an expensive war in Yemen and escalating conflict with Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to glut the market to lower oil prices has put the kingdom’s economy at the edge of collapse. The International Monetary Fund says the country cannot balance its budget if oil is below $106 a barrel.
In Yemen, political instability, outside interference and backlash against U.S. counterterrorism have increased violence. Insurgent Houthis, Shiite rebels with links to Iran, routed Yemen’s Sunni government in January 2015. Saudi-led intervention threatens to draw Yemen into the Sunni-Shia divide. The political turmoil has allowed al-Qaeda, IS and other terrorist groups to operate freely.
Escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has caused bloodshed across the Islamic world. On Jan. 2, 2016, Saudi Arabia beheaded 43 Sunni terrorists and four Shiite dissidents, among them respected Shiite cleric Nimr Biqr al-Nimr, a decision sure to generate anger in Iran and Shiite communities around the world. The Saudi-Iranian crisis has spread to African and Arab nations, some of which have taken diplomatic actions against Iran, while Egypt and Turkey have sided with the Saudis. Of concern are further Middle Eastern destabilization and opportunities for terrorist organizations to expand.
At stake for the world is the pressure to respond and the prolonged human effects in the Middle East. Human rights abuses, especially in Saudi Arabia, are having a humanitarian impact the world must address.
3. Syrian refugee crisis
The Syrian war has killed more than 250,000 people and displaced close to 11 million. Refugees have been fleeing their homes since 2011, scattering to neighbouring countries and to Europe. Many are stuck in camps, hoping for a way out. Peace talks have failed — refugees who hope to go home when the war ends will have a long wait.
The initial wave of people was welcomed in Europe, but the wave became a tsunami, and more than a million refugees arrived in 2015. It became an emotional and divisive matter as governments became concerned about the difficulties and cost — roughly US $35,000 per adult.
The practical considerations are monumental — how do you find accommodations and services for thousands at once? Although the world has pledged US $10 billion to support Syrian refugees, homes, schools and jobs can’t be created overnight.
Security concerns are high, as well; IS has said it will infiltrate refugee groups and has 4,000 fighters standing by. Properly vetting incoming refugees who have no identification seems impossible and has provided opportunities for IS and migrants from several countries to take advantage of the Syrian crisis. Security fears have been borne out by Bulgarian police officials’ discovery of 10,000 fake Syrian passports and reports from Germany’s intelligence agency that IS fighters have entered Europe disguised as refugees.
John McCallum, Canada’s immigration minister, says this concern does not apply to Canada because Canada is accepting only refugees who have already been vetted by the UN and is not accepting single males travelling alone, who are more likely to have been radicalized.
Canada has been receiving Syrian refugees since 2011, but in 2015 rushed to admit 25,000 more to meet an election campaign promise. In mid-February 2016, when only 15,700 had arrived out of the total to be received before March, hundreds awaited housing, with cities asking for the process to be slowed to allow them to find the proper support.
This crisis is not a short-term matter of providing humanitarian aid; it is a long-term challenge for integration, according to Daniel Byman, of Brookings. While our intentions are good, we don’t really know what we face. This crisis is unlike others we’ve met. During the Cold War, Canada accepted refugees fleeing the Communist ideology they opposed; they wanted to embrace western values. The Syrian refugees find themselves in a strange place that they may not have chosen, where everything is unfamiliar, and where gender equality and sexual liberty may be offensive. Addressing their trauma requires more than a roof and new clothes, and will take time.
The risk in rushing is that we won’t do it right and people will suffer more, and that the refugees will be welcomed out of sympathy, but later be scorned or repressed. Canada has a moral obligation as a global citizen to assist refugees, but it must be done intelligently, not emotionally.
4. The Canadian economy
The Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis reports that the long-term average growth rate for world trade has been five percent, but in 2014 it was 3.3 percent, 2.7 percent in 2013, and 2.1 percent in 2012. Canada’s real GDP growth in 2015’s third quarter was 0.6 percent, with slower growth in the fourth.
Household debt is at its highest in 25 years and Canada’s debt over the past 15 years has increased more than any other G7 country. Statistics Canada reports 19,600 jobs lost in Canada in 2015, most in Alberta. The situation has worsened, Alberta’s unemployment rose to 7.9 percent in mid-March 2016, surpassing the national rate of 7.2 percent.
Along with Saudi Arabia lowering oil prices, China’s slowing economy has reduced the demand for commodities. Energy, gold and mining stocks have declined and the falling loonie has raised food prices. The country is caught in what the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives calls a “staples trap” in which our economy relies too much on Alberta’s oilsands, invests too much in one sector and becomes less diversified.
Canada is one of the few countries to have reduced oil production, deepening the impact on oil-producing Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Lower oil revenues led Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January to consider a stimulus plan focused on Alberta and Saskatchewan. Economists dithered, agreeing and disagreeing with the PM, the finance minister and one another. The government didn’t hasten to the rescue; in February, Trudeau announced funding that had been promised in 2014 would be delivered “within months.” The outlook appears grim.
5. Climate change
You might think climate change would be at the top of this list, given its catastrophic implications, but the topics above keep us from focusing on the issue. A 2015 Pew Research survey revealed that in Europe, the U.S. and the Middle East, concern about the climate is surpassed by fear of IS.
The effects of climate change are visible in rising global temperatures, rising sea levels and warming oceans, retreating glaciers and declining Arctic sea ice and extreme events such as storms, floods and drought. Greenhouse gases are to blame, says NASA, evident in the heat-trapping aura of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that surrounds Earth.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts under the auspices of the United Nations, has concluded that there is a more-than-90-percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet, and that globally, economic and population growth are the most significant drivers of increased carbon dioxide emissions.
In most western nations, political ideology reflects how concerned we are, with a larger percentage of people on the left concerned about climate change. For example, in the U.S., 62 percent of Democrats report being “very concerned” while only 20 percent of Republicans say the same. That difference of opinion stops us from having meaningful conversations about what it would mean to be kinder to the Earth, regardless of our views on climate change.
Climate change deniers and doubters suggest that Earth has natural cycles of warming and cooling and humans are too insignificant to have such an impact. Well, maybe. But what would be the harm in reducing greenhouse gases and garbage, making the world more pleasant and mitigating our impact, however small, on the only planet we have?
6. China’s slowing economy
China has the second-largest economy in the world. Even though it is experiencing its slowest rate of growth in 25 years, it is still among the fastest-growing economies globally. In 2013, when China’s annual 10-percent growth rate threatened to become a bubble, the government’s economic reform measures slowed growth to seven percent. Even though China generated more than a third of global GDP in 2015, commodity exports declined and personal income and business revenues grew more slowly than usual. Since 2012, the service sector has done better than manufacturing and is supporting China’s modest growth.
Before this slowdown, China’s voracious appetite for commodities kept prices up for oil, potash, nickel and other resources that Canada produces. Reduced demand has reversed commodity prices, affecting other economies, including Canada’s. Additionally, China’s economic growth was built on low-value exports with great government investment in state-owned companies that are now struggling to repay debt. The Economist reported in August 2015 that combined private-public debt had risen to 2.5 times the GDP. The end result is that the Chinese, nationally and personally, are spending less.
Significantly, China is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. funds (in November 2015, China owned $1.264 trillion in treasuries, one-fifth of public debt held by foreign entities). China buys U.S. debt to support the dollar, pegging the yuan to the U.S. dollar and devaluing the currency as needed to keep export prices competitive. As the U.S.’s largest banker, China has leverage. With the loonie measured against the greenback, what China does affects us, too.
7. An irritated Russia
The Russian bear is aging and angry, its unpredictable leader, an authoritarian muscle man who complains of being poked by the West, aging along with it.
The ruble and Russia’s standard of living have fallen with the price of oil. President Vladimir Putin blames the West for Russia’s economic problems, citing sanctions over Ukraine, although he has not been the least intimidated by them. His perspective that the war in Ukraine was orchestrated by the West is shared by the Russian elite. Putin has also talked about an American-Saudi conspiracy and NATO economic warfare.
From a western perspective, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is part of a broader confrontation with the West in which Putin is depending on time and endurance to deliver Ukraine’s collapse to protect Russian sovereignty and its access to the Black Sea coast in Crimea, where the Black Sea Fleet is harboured (Russia has a lease at Sevastopol until 2040). At least these are logical reasons for Russia to want Ukraine to capitulate; what Putin really wants seems open to interpretation and experts disagree on his intentions.
Almost 25 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the threat from the East is the greatest it’s ever been, according to The Economist, and is compounded by the weak American response to Russian aggression in Crimea. In the past, the Politburo put limitations on Soviet leaders, but today, Putin’s personal interests are Russia’s interests, even including using nuclear arms. As he is fond of saying, nobody should try to push Russia around when it has one of the world’s biggest nuclear arsenals.
Russia and the U.S. also disagree over Syria. The U.S. has accused Russia of targeting opposition groups and killing civilians with its airstrikes; Russia refused to stop, until a tenuous recent ceasefire. Russia’s form of counter-terrorism, such as collective punishment of suspects’ families, could drive the radicalization of a new generation.
Further, Russian involvement in the fight against IS in Syria may lead to renewed Chechen insurgency among the Caucasus’ Muslim population, or more attacks across Russia, such as the 2015 bombing of a Russian airliner by an IS-affiliated group. Russia has fought two Chechen wars to curb separatism and the Islamic threat, resulting ultimately in Chechnya’s identity being superseded by an Islamic one. Chechnya’s leader is former militant Ramzan Kadyrov, appointed by Putin in 2011; he is Putin’s key ally in Chechnya and similarly pugnacious, volatile and an ultra-Russian nationalist.
The global nature of terrorist organizations, Russia’s proximity to NATO members, and Russians’ enthusiastic support of their capricious leader make Russia’s problems a concern to the world.
8. Provocation in the South China Sea
Tensions are mounting between China and other countries in this strategic waterway, threatening to escalate into military action. One-third of the world’s shipping travels through the South China Sea, which stretches from the Singapore and Malacca straits to the Strait of Taiwan. It is also believed to hold vast oil and gas reserves.
The natural islands in the hotly contested area are claimed by other countries, but China has claimed sovereignty over the sea and has been building artificial islands and establishing military facilities on them, damaging natural reefs, straining geopolitical tensions and creating contention with the U.S. China says the facilities are needed to protect the islands and the U.S. is being provocative with its patrols. The U.S. has tested China’s position by sending military vessels within 12 nautical miles of China’s claimed territory.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have competing territorial claims in the South China Sea that don’t involve China. Taiwan has controlled Itu Aba, the largest of the Spratly Islands, since 1956 and has built installations there. It has long been overshadowed by China in the dispute, but is asserting its claim now that the Phillippines has challenged China in an international court in The Hague.
The U.S. has interests in maintaining freedom of navigation and lines of communication in the area, and preventing territorial disputes from escalating. Its defence treaty with Manila could draw the U.S. into China’s disputes with the Philippines over natural gas and fishing grounds, or with Vietnam over territory.
Additionally, in the adjacent East China Sea, China is in a dispute with Japan over the Senkaku/Daioyu islands. They have been Japanese territory since 1895, and China has asserted claims over them since the 1970s. China and Japan each claim an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles; the sea is 360 nautical miles wide, so the claimed areas overlap.
Although tension between China and Japan has subsided, nationalism and mistrust heighten the potential for conflict and impair efforts for peaceful resolution. American treaty commitments with
Japan mean a military confrontation could involve U.S. military action in the area, which would obviously disrupt global trade.
9. Cyber attacks
The most noticeable form of cyber attack is phishing. Usually, it takes the form of fake emails from cable companies or banks warning that we must provide personal information to keep our accounts open. In contrast, spear phishing is email-spoofing fraud that targets specific organizations to get access to confidential information. Spear phishing, in particular, has become a useful and effective criminal tool, with much of it based on social media profiles. Because we put our information “out there,” we are all at risk.
This hidden menace affects millions of people worldwide and costs companies US $400 billion each year. It will get worse because we tend to be stupid about social media and no one is doing anything to stop it.
In 2014, big attacks on corporations, such as the point-of-sale attacks on Target stores, transitioned to attacks aimed at getting identifiable personal information. Also in 2014, the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre reported that financial institutions were receiving fraudulent emails from clients requesting money transfers to foreign accounts.
The largest target group of cyber-attacks will be small- and medium-sized businesses, partially because of a lack of sophistication within that group, but mostly because of the prevalence of information about these businesses in places such as Facebook and LinkedIn. Malware, delivered through attachments or links in phishing emails, is sold around the world to individual criminals and small criminal groups, and hacking services are for sale to use against small businesses.
The costs of cyber attacks will rise, but accountability won’t and there is essentially no protection until a person or business has been defrauded or ruined. It is up to individuals to protect themselves.
10. American election
Given the long and tedious American electoral process, polls and early front-runners aren’t accurate predictors of who will win. In this year’s election, the attention given to the bombastic Donald Trump is obscuring other platforms. We are hearing less about what the other candidates are saying, particularly concerning IS — the top concern on this list.
Trump declared in May 2015 that he had a foolproof plan to defeat IS, but wouldn’t share it, unwilling to alert the enemy. He said in December that he would “bomb those suckers” and “blow up the pipes…blow up the refineries, every single inch, there would be nothing left.” Among the other hawkish statements: Ted Cruz promised to “carpet bomb them into oblivion” and to find out “if sand can glow in the dark.”
Hillary Clinton views military action as necessary as well (“We need to crush ISIS on its home turf”), but her approach also includes dismantling terrorist infrastructure, both real and virtual, and co-ordinating with allies to prevent attacks.
In 2014, Bernie Sanders said he didn’t want the U.S. to lead the fight against IS, and he put the onus on Muslim countries to quash the terrorist group. Now his official platform, buried in his campaign website, is that the U.S. “should not be the policeman of the world” and should be united in a large coalition “led and sustained by nations in the region that have the means to protect themselves.” Specifically, he advocates “on-the-ground Muslim troops,” agreeing with King Abdullah of Jordan that “it will be Muslim troops who destroy ISIS, because ISIS has hijacked their religion,” while the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Russia would provide support to troops from Muslim nations.
Laura Neilson Bonikowsky is an Alberta author and frequent contributor to
Diplomat.
